Hillary Clinton just received her best polling data against Donald Trump yet, thanks to a new Reuters / Ipsos poll which has her ahead a whopping thirteen points nationwide. That’s blowout territory for a Presidential general election race, and it represents her most hopeful sign yet that she’ll be able to dominate in her contest against the flailing Trump. However, this one poll must be examined within the context of its own previous results and how it impacts the average of current polls.
The new Reuters poll represents an increase in Hillary’s lead by three points over the past three days, from a 10% to now a 13% lead. However this poll has been at the high end of the range of the various national polls being conducted. For instance, prior to today’s data, Hillary’s average lead over Trump across all recent major national polls was 5.8 points. Factoring in the new Reuters number boosts her average lead to just over six points. The low end of the range is the Gravis pol, which has Hillary ahead of Trump by just two points.
But at this point every poll conducted in the past month says that Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump nationally. One has to go all the way back to an ABC News poll conducted in mid-May to find one in which Trump held a slight lead, and that poll has yet to be updated since.
In the mean time, even as the new Reuters poll makes headlines due to its exorbitant thirteen point lead for Clinton, it must be noted that this is in fact the high end of the range, and that it represents a lead twice the size that the average of polls points to. It’s too early to know how accurate the general election polls might be overall, but their average is more likely to be accurate than any one poll.
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